Kenya will import one million 90kg bags of maize to rebuild its strategic reserves.
Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe delivered the news to lawmakers, pointing to a dry spell that cut yields across the country’s grain belt just as the season looked set to deliver another strong harvest.
A Deficit Widening By The Week
The national maize deficit is projected to hit 5.4 million 90kg bags by the end of September. Kagwe called that gap one that demands urgent policy action, and the numbers back him up: yields could fall by as much as 40 percent this season.
The season started well. Early rains arrived on schedule, giving farmers a normal planting window. Then the rains stopped. A prolonged dry spell followed, hitting crops right when they needed moisture most, as maize plants were filling out their cobs.
From Record Harvest to Renewed Imports
Government data tracks a steady climb in maize production over the past five years. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, output rose from 36.7 million bags in 2021 to 34.2 million in 2022, then jumped to 47.6 million bags in 2023 and held near that level through 2024 at 44.8 million bags. Provisional figures put 2025 production at 45.8 million bags, the strongest showing in the five year run.
That growth traces back to a government fertiliser subsidy programme that helped farmers expand output and push yields higher year after year. Officials carried that momentum into 2026, forecasting further gains on favourable early rains and expanded planting in the North Rift, the country’s main grain basket.
Those forecasts have not held up. Crops wilted in leading producing counties such as Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzoia before farmers could bring in a full harvest, and assessments in some areas point to losses topping 30 percent.
Kagwe’s account of the 2025 harvest, cited in some reporting as roughly 67 million bags, sits well above the Ministry’s own provisional figure of 45.8 million bags for that year. That is a gap worth watching as final numbers come in, since it changes how steep this year’s reversal actually looks.
Government Weighs a Direct Import Route
“The projected depressed yields risk widening the maize deficit in the country, requiring contingency imports or release of strategic reserves to stabilize the domestic demand situation,” Kagwe told lawmakers.
He added that the government may pursue the imports through a government to government arrangement, a route that can speed up procurement and cut out private trading intermediaries.
What This Means For Food Security
The swing from record harvest to import dependence took a single season. A run of strong years, built on subsidised fertiliser and favourable rains, gave way to renewed reliance on imports once the weather turned. It is a reminder that Kenya’s food security position can shift fast, and that one poor rainy period can erase years of gains in maize output.
Beans, potatoes, sorghum and millet followed a similar pattern in the government data, each posting gains through 2023 and 2024 before easing slightly heading into 2025. That broader dip across staple crops suggests the dry spell hitting maize this season may be squeezing other harvests too, not just the country’s dominant grain.
