Kenya’s headline inflation reached 5.6 percent in April 2026, up from 4.4 percent in March, marking the first time since June 2024 that the rate has exceeded the Central Bank’s 5 percent midpoint.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) confirmed the figure, citing rising costs in food, transport and fuel as the primary drivers.
On a month-on-month basis, prices climbed 1.4 percent in April, compared with 0.5 percent in March, signalling a sharp acceleration in the pace of price increases.
What Is Pushing Prices Up
Three categories drove the April surge, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report.
| Category | April 2026 Change |
|---|---|
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | +8.8% |
| Transport | +10.0% |
| Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels | +2.4% |
Fuel prices delivered the most direct blow. The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) raised the price of super petrol by KSh 9.37 to KSh 197.60 per litre and diesel by KSh 10.21 to KSh 196.63. The regulator traced the increase to higher global oil landing costs, partly tied to supply disruptions, even as an 8 percent VAT reduction on fuel softened what would otherwise have been a steeper rise at the pump.
Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi said: “Fuel inflation has already started feeding into the economy and reducing household purchasing power.” He attributed the pressure to Middle East tensions that have raised petroleum landing costs and pushed transport and production expenses higher across sectors.
The government spent KSh 6.2 billion from the fuel stabilisation fund and cut VAT on petroleum products from 16 percent to 8 percent in response. “If we did not intervene, fuel prices would have gone much higher,” Mbadi said. Officials cautioned, however, that deeper cuts or broader subsidies would strain public finances at a time of tight revenues and elevated debt service costs.
The Central Bank’s Position
At its most recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the Central Bank paused its easing cycle and held the benchmark lending rate at 8.75 percent. The government’s medium-term target keeps annual inflation between 2.5 percent and 7.5 percent, so the April reading remains within the band, though its trajectory is drawing attention.
NCBA Market Research, in its post-MPC note, framed the challenge as: “Overall, to maintain macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation and exercising prudent fiscal management will be essential to navigate the current shock. The government could cushion consumers with the fuel stabilisation fund, but in our view will realise only a partial and short-lived reprieve. Resultantly, the MPC will remain cautious and any adjustment on the policy stance will be data driven.”
The bank had flagged this moment in its April monthly report, where analysts wrote: “We see oil-driven upside risks to inflation materialising in the short term. The second-round effects from higher food prices are expected to be of smaller magnitude but linger longer on the back of production and crop cycles. We now foresee inflation rising above the 5% midpoint in the next two months.” April confirmed that forecast.
Where Kenya Stood Before April
The April reading ends a period of relative price stability. Kenya’s annual inflation eased to 4.01 percent in 2025, down from 4.5 percent in 2024, supported by lower fuel, electricity and cooking gas prices.
| Category | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Transport | 5.0% | 3.2% |
| Housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels | 3.9% | 0.6% |
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 5.6% | 7.2% |
| Overall headline inflation | 4.5% | 4.01% |
Food proved the exception. Even as other categories moderated, food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation accelerated to 7.2 percent in 2025, keeping pressure on household budgets throughout the year.
What the Outlook Signals
KNBS projects inflation at 5.2 percent for 2026, driven partly by imported price pressures and global uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran could sustain upward pressure on global food and energy prices, complicating the expected easing trend worldwide.
Globally, inflation is forecast at 3.8 percent this year. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, it declined sharply to 13.1 percent in 2025 from 20.3 percent in 2024, supported by lower food and energy costs, with regional economic growth improving to 4.4 percent. The projection for 2026 stands at 10.9 percent. Within the EAC-5 bloc, prices are expected to edge up to 4.8 percent.
For Kenya, April’s 5.6 percent reading marks the second consecutive monthly rise since February, when inflation stood at 4.3 percent. The question now is whether the Central Bank will hold its current position or act before the data shifts further.
