Inside Safaricom’s FY2026 Numbers: What the Audited Financials Reveal Beyond the Headlines

The headline numbers from Safaricom’s FY2026 results are already in circulation. KSh 400 billion in Kenya service revenue. KSh 100 billion net income attributable to shareholders.

A record KSh 80 billion dividend. But the audited financials published on 7 May 2026 contain a layer of data that the investor conference summaries did not reach: Fuliza disbursements up 49% to KSh 1.47 trillion, messaging revenue in structural decline, Safaricom holding 66.8% of Kenya’s GSM market, and Ethiopia’s birr depreciating 23.7% against the dollar in a single year.

The Audited Group Picture

The consolidated income statement confirms group service revenue of KSh 414.1 billion, up 11.5% year on year. Strip out the residual impact of IAS 29, the hyperinflationary accounting standard that applied to Ethiopia until June 2025, and the normalised growth rate is 11.1%. On a constant currency basis excluding IAS 29, it runs to 11.9%.

The EBIT figure that matters to shareholders, stripped of IAS 29 distortions, grew 58.5%. The group crossed 50% EBITDA margin for the first time since entering Ethiopia. “Group Service Revenue grew by 11.5% YoY to KShs 414.1Bn, driven by double digit growth in Kenya and accelerated growth in Ethiopia,” CFO Dilip Pal said.

Kenya: Market Share, Margins and the Messaging Decline

Safaricom Kenya maintained a 66.8% GSM customer market share as at December 2025, according to the Communications Authority of Kenya. That figure carries weight for investors monitoring competitive pressure and does not appear in most summaries.

Churn fell nearly 4 percentage points, a metric that rarely features in headline commentary but signals deeper customer retention across the base.

One number that tells a different story is messaging revenue, which fell 11.8% year on year to KSh 11.0 billion. Messages per subscriber dropped 24% to 121.45 per month. The decline reflects migration toward IP-based messaging platforms, a structural shift aligned with global industry trends. 

M-PESA: Five Years of Revenue Shift in One Table

The audited financials publish a five-year M-PESA revenue breakdown that makes the structural transformation visible.

Withdrawals, once the largest single line, have flatlined at KSh 36.8 billion over four years. Consumer payments and business payments together now drive over 90% of M-PESA revenue growth. Financial services, while still the smallest segment by revenue, grew fastest in three years at 19.1%.

“M-PESA now contributes 45.6% of total service revenue in Kenya from 44.2% in FY25,” Pal confirmed. At the current trajectory, M-PESA crosses 50% of Kenya service revenue before the 2030 strategy cycle ends.

Fuliza: The Overdraft That Processed KSh 1.47 Trillion

Fuliza, the M-PESA overdraft facility operated with NCBA, KCB and Sidian Bank, processed KSh 1.47 trillion in disbursements during FY2026, up 49.3% year on year. Distinct customers using Fuliza more than doubled to 17.7 million from 7.9 million. Revenue from the product grew 46% to KSh 6 billion.

The average ticket size fell 9.7% to KSh 217.9, meaning more people use Fuliza for smaller amounts more frequently. The repayment rate holds at 101.5%, indicating no deterioration in credit quality despite the expansion.

KCB M-PESA grew disbursements 30.3% to KSh 73.8 billion with average loan size rising 30.4% to KSh 9,651. M-Shwari, by contrast, saw disbursements decline 1.3% and revenue fall 14.1%, with active customers down 4.7%. The platform appears to be losing ground to Fuliza among shorter-term borrowers.

Pochi La Biashara: Revenue Doubled

Revenue from the informal merchant product , Pochi La Biashara doubled to KSh 4 billion, transaction volumes grew 78%, and the merchant base crossed 2 million at 81.5% year on year growth.

Pochi contributed 23% of incremental business payments revenue growth despite its value base being a fraction of C2B. Revenue grew 86% on an 87% increase in transaction volumes. For food vendors, kiosk operators and boda boda riders, Pochi is becoming the primary business banking tool.

Ziidi Trader and Wealth Management

Ziidi Trader, launched during the year, enables customers to buy and sell NSE-listed shares and corporate bonds directly through the M-PESA App. The platform operates under Capital Markets Authority oversight and allows investors to start from as little as one share.

Ziidi MMF’s AUM grew above 100% to KSh 18.7 billion. The current Ziidi MMF yield stands at 5.8% per year. Revenue from wealth management remains small at KSh 140 million, but the customer and AUM growth rates suggest this segment will become material to M-PESA’s financial services line within two to three years.

Fixed Broadband: The Activity Rate Problem

FTTH customers grew 35% to 407,080. But the activity rate, meaning active customers as a proportion of homes connected, fell from 59.5% to 55.1%. Homes connected grew 45.9% to 739,380 while active customers grew at a slower pace.

FTTH ARPU fell 2.5% to KSh 2,297 and enterprise fixed ARPU dropped 9.2% to KSh 9,449, reflecting the deliberate strategy of doubling speeds while holding prices. CEO Peter Ndegwa noted that cost structure redesign, including AI-driven remote fault detection, created the room to hold prices as network coverage expanded.

5G Fixed Wireless Access contributed 52.3% of total connection growth, with FWA customers growing 53% to 132,060. This segment now represents 27% of all fixed connections. “In FY27, we will accelerate growth by deepening customer value through more personalised, affordable, and integrated propositions,” Ndegwa said.

Ethiopia: The Currency Reality Behind the Growth

The Ethiopian birr depreciated 23.7% against the US dollar in FY2026 to 154.96 as at 31 March 2026, and weakened 39.6% to 180.96 against the euro over the same period. Ethiopia’s conversion rate fell from KSh 1.304 per birr in FY25 to KSh 0.893 per birr in FY26, a 31.5% reduction in the shilling value of every birr earned.

Ethiopia service revenue grew 86.6% in KSh terms to KSh 14.1 billion. In birr terms, excluding IAS 29, it grew 130.9% to ETB 15.9 billion. The underlying business momentum in local currency terms is significantly stronger than the KSh figures suggest.

The EBIT loss excluding IAS 29 halved in KSh terms from KSh 61.1 billion to KSh 30.1 billion. In birr terms the improvement was 22.2%, from ETB 42.3 billion to ETB 32.9 billion. Both measures point in the same direction: the losses are shrinking at pace.

Ethiopia’s shareholding as at 31 March 2026 shows Safaricom PLC holding 54.17%, up from 51.67% in FY25. Sumitomo holds 23.50%, British International Investment 9.50%, IFC 6.81%, and Vodacom 6.02%.

The Balance Sheet: Long-Term Debt Now 77% of Total

Long-term debt now represents 77% of total group debt, a 16.4 percentage point shift year on year. This followed the successful KSh 20 billion green bond medium-term note issued in December 2025, which Pal described as Safaricom’s return to the domestic bond market for the first time in over a decade.

Short-term borrowings fell from KSh 42.7 billion to KSh 25.5 billion. Long-term borrowings rose from KSh 64.7 billion to KSh 83.7 billion. The shift reduces refinancing risk and extends the debt maturity profile as Ethiopia moves toward profitability and Kenya capex stabilises.

Interest costs fell 24.3% year on year, benefiting from both the lower absolute debt level in Kenya and declining effective interest rates as the macroeconomic environment improved.

FY2027: The Numbers Behind the Guidance

FY2027 group capex is guided at KSh 64 to 70 billion. Kenya capex sits at KSh 58 to 61 billion and Ethiopia at KSh 6 to 9 billion.

“In FY27 we expect Group EBIT of KShs 180–187 billion and Group Capex of KShs 64–70 billion,” Ndegwa confirmed. “Kenya EBIT is expected to be KShs 195–199 billion, with Ethiopia delivering an EBIT loss of KShs 12–15 billion as we continue to reduce startup losses.”

The AGM is confirmed for 31 July 2026. The final dividend of KSh 1.15 per share, subject to shareholder approval, will be paid on or about 4 September 2026 to shareholders on the register as at the close of business on 4 August 2026.

What the Audited Numbers Add to the Story

Three things stand out from the audited financials that do not feature prominently in press commentary.

First, Fuliza’s scale. At KSh 1.47 trillion in disbursements against a GDP of approximately KSh 15 trillion, Safaricom’s short-term overdraft product now moves the equivalent of roughly 10% of Kenya’s annual economic output. That is not a small product. It is a credit infrastructure.

Second, messaging revenue is in structural decline. At KSh 11 billion and falling 11.8%, messaging no longer contributes to growth. Mobile data at KSh 83.4 billion growing 14.4% has taken its place as the connectivity growth engine. Voice at KSh 81.8 billion still generates more revenue but grows at just 1.3%.

Third, the Ethiopia currency story cuts both ways. The 31.5% reduction in the shilling value of the birr compressed KSh revenue and inflated KSh losses. As the birr stabilises or the business grows large enough to absorb FX volatility through scale, the upside to group earnings from Ethiopia will appear faster than the current KSh numbers suggest.

“We remain confident in our ability to deliver on our strategic priorities, navigate near-term volatility and continue building a resilient, future-ready organisation well positioned to capture long-term opportunities,” Ndegwa said.