Kenyan exports are expected to grow at an average annual rate of more than 7 per cent hitting Ksh 1.2 trillion (USD 10.2 billion) by 2030.
As per Standard Chartered titled Future of Trade 2030: Trends and markets to watch, the growth of exports is being driven by the expansion of the manufacturing sector and strengthening of its regional trade relation.
“It is focusing on developing the required infrastructure and investing in projects for railway, road, and port development,” part of the research reads.
In addition, “Uganda and the USA will continue to be the leading export corridors for Kenya, accounting for 11 per cent and 9 per cent of total exports in 2030, respectively. Pakistan is a fast-growing export corridor with 10.7 per cent average growth per year from 2020 to 2030.”
The research also found that 10 per cent of global corporates currently do or plan to manufacture in Kenya within the next five to 10 years.
Provisional data from the Central Bank of Kenya in January, exports recovered to post an 11.7 per cent growth in 2021 to Ksh.765.2 billion ($6.739 billion). Exports rose from Ksh.685 billion ($6.033 billion) in 2020 as the economy re-emerged from the impact of the COVID-19 crisis.
Global exports are expected to grow by 70 per cent from USD 17.4 trillion to USD 29.7 trillion over the next decade. The report reveals 13 markets that will drive much of this growth, identifies major corridors and has five trends shaping the future of global trade.
Sectors that will dominate exports in 2030
- Agriculture and food
- Metals and minerals
- Textile and apparel
Global overview: 13 markets driving future trade growth
| Market | Exports in 2030 (USD) | Average annual growth rate | Key corridors |
| Bangladesh | 51bn | 7% | India, UAE, USA |
| Hong Kong | 939bn | 5.7% | Japan, Mainland China, USA |
| India | 563bn | 7.6% | Hong Kong, Singapore, USA |
| Indonesia | 347bn | 8.1% | India, Mainland China, USA |
| Kenya | 10bn | 7.7% | Pakistan, Uganda, USA |
| Mainland China | 5,022bn | 7.1% | Germany, Malaysia, Vietnam |
| Malaysia | 498bn | 8.3% | India, Mainland China, Singapore |
| Nigeria | 112bn | 9.7% | India, Indonesia, Mainland China |
| Saudi Arabia | 354bn | 7.6% | India, Mainland China, South Korea |
| Singapore | 687bn | 7.4% | India, Mainland China, Malaysia |
| South Korea | 971bn | 7.1% | India, Mainland China, Vietnam |
| UAE | 298bn | 6.1% | India, Mainland China, Singapore |
| Vietnam | 535bn | 7.0% | India, Mainland China, USA |
The report, commissioned by Standard Chartered and prepared by PwC, is based on an analysis of historical trade data and projections until 2030. Global trade will be reshaped by the following key trends.
- The wider adoption of sustainable and fair-trade practices
- A push for more inclusive participation
- Greater risk diversification
- More digitization
- Rebalancing towards high-growth emerging markets
Almost 90 per cent of the corporate leaders surveyed agreed that these trends will shape the future of trade and will form part of their five to 10-year cross-border expansion strategies.
The research also found a significant trend towards the adoption of sustainable trade practices in response to climate concerns and a rising wave of conscious consumerism. However, while almost 90% of corporate leaders acknowledged the need to implement these practices across their supply chains, only 34 per cent ranked it as a top-three priority for execution over the next five to 10 years.
Commenting on the report, Makabelo Malumane, Head Transaction Banking Standard Chartered said, “The predicted doubling of global trade offers strong evidence that globalization is still working, despite recent dislocation. In addition to the growth of intra-regional trade pathways, the corridors of the future will still cut across continents.”
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