Kenya Wheat Imports: 92% Reliance, Farmers Seek Market Access

Kenya’s wheat sector faces a supply deficit, with the Agricultural Food Authority (AFA) reporting that the country produces only 8% of its annual demand, relying on imports for the remaining 92%.

According to the AFA’s report, “The national wheat demand is 2.2–2.4 million metric tons annually. The country produces about 8% of total consumption, while 92% is imported.”

In 2023, Kenya’s wheat production was 135,000 MT, compared to a consumption of 2,200,000 MT, a figure that has been steadily increasing. “The deficit of about 1.9-2.2 MT has been filled through imports, primarily from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU,” the AFA report states, highlighting the nation’s reliance on external sources.

The AFA further reports that from July 2024 to March 2025, the total local wheat harvest is 1.7 million (90 kg) bags, with millers having already purchased 1.4 million bags.

Approximately 321,596 bags remain with farmers and marketing agents, with the majority located in Upper Narok. An additional 80,000 bags are projected to be harvested in Upper Narok and Timau.

To address these challenges, the AFA indicates that the government, through the BETA program, is implementing strategies such as subsidized fertilizer, minimum guaranteed prices, e-extension services, soil testing, and improved seed varieties.

In response to the wheat crisis, the Ministry of Agriculture has announced that the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) will begin collecting 321,000 bags of wheat from farmers, with payments to be made within 30 days.

Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has warned against attempts to introduce imported wheat into the NCPB system, stating that such actions would be considered sabotage.

“In a memorandum of understanding to be signed between the NCPB and the Millers, the wheat from the NCPB will be collected by millers and payments done within 14 to 21 days,” Kagwe stated, outlining the plan to streamline the purchasing process.

Kagwe aims to increase local wheat production to over 40% of miller demand.

However, the Cereal Millers Association (CMA) refutes claims that millers prioritize imports over local wheat.

Despite these efforts, Kenya’s wheat output remains insufficient, with reports indicating that the country produces only 7% of its annual requirement, approximately 1.7 million bags (153,000 metric tonnes), while national consumption stands at 24 million bags (2.1 million metric tonnes).

This necessitates bridging a 93% wheat deficit through imports. Between July 2024 and February 2025, 1,360,607 metric tonnes of wheat have been imported under the East African Community (EAC) duty remission framework.

The CMA, through CEO Paloma Fernandes, emphasizes the need for aligning local wheat prices with production costs.

“To stabilize Kenya’s wheat industry, the government must align local wheat prices with production costs to prevent market inefficiencies. Input-level subsidies on fertilizers and seeds can lower production costs, increasing supply and reducing market prices.”

“Meanwhile output prices should be driven by market forces to reflect supply and demand dynamics, ensuring efficiency and sustainability. This approach will enhance food security and support the long-term viability of wheat production. This strategy also helps prevent market distortions and supports the long-term viability of wheat production in Kenya,” Fernandes stated.

The CMA also highlights the disparity in import duties within the EAC, noting that Kenyan millers face competitive disadvantages.

According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) National Agriculture Production Report 2024, wheat is Kenya’s second-largest consumed cereal after maize.

However, the area under wheat production decreased from 119.6 thousand hectares in 2022 to 104.4 thousand hectares in 2023. This decline is attributed to farmers shifting to maize cultivation due to favorable prices.

Wheat production decreased from 368.7 thousand tonnes in 2022 to 309.5 thousand tonnes in 2023, partly due to increased Quelea Quelea bird infestations, particularly in Narok.

Consequently, the value of wheat decreased from KSh 14.7 billion in 2022 to KSh 12.3 billion in 2023.

Wheat production in Kenya from 2019 to 2023

Key Points

• AREA UNDER WHEAT PRODUCTION: The area dedicated to wheat cultivation decreased from 136,525 hectares in 2019 to 104,440 hectares in 2023.
• WHEAT PRODUCTION: The production peaked at 404,696 tons in 2020 and decreased to 309,492 tons in 2023.
• TREND: There is a general decline in both area and production over the years, with some fluctuations.