Dear Mr. President,
You will soon be making a high-profile state visit to the United States, the first of its kind for any African president under President Joe Biden.
It is a great honour to be accorded such a rare privilege. It boosts your profile, as well as that of the country. But Mr. President, that’s where the glory ends and hard work begins.
Having been in the space for a long time, you are well informed of the short supply of altruism in the international system. You are grounded in the importance of national interest as the driving force in international relations.
That you have been accorded that rare privilege ahead of your 54 counterparts has little, if any, to do with the love that President Biden has for you. It has everything to do with the love they have for what Kenya stands to offer them.
It is no secret why the US is enamoured of Kenya. There are observable geostrategic, security, and economic interests. Kenya’s relative stability in a troubled region makes the country a prized asset.
There is no denying Kenya’s (potential) role in calming the troubled East and Horn of Africa region, including Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Recent high-profile visits by the US security sector leadership, including the head of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Cabinet Secretary for Defense, speak to this. The US is wary of the implications to its interests if the region were to collapse under the heavy weight of instability. The US will undoubtedly seek to ground and firm up this interest.
Economic interest, arguably less pronounced, is slowly gaining currency. This is partly evidenced by the most recent engagement in Nairobi by the President’s Advisory Council on Doing Business in Africa (PAC-DBIA). President Biden will most likely discuss how to secure more opportunities for US investments.
He will most likely raise concerns with you about corruption. The US’s 2024 National Trade Estimate Report flagged corruption challenges faced by US investors seeking opportunities in Kenya.
But Mr. President, as much as the US enjoys disproportionate leverage, Kenya has some cards to shuffle. Its geostrategic location, its economy, and the shifting global power dynamics offer you room to negotiate a semblance of a fair bargain on Kenya’s behalf.
Particularly for the global power shift, the Solomon Islands presents a lesson on how even tiny states can scale the heights of international interest.
Twenty times smaller than Kenya and with a population of less than one million, Solomon Islands has recently been at the centre of intense US-China rivalry for global dominance.
I am sure, Mr. President, you already have your plan fully developed. I have no intention of advising you on how to proceed. I nevertheless feel compelled to express my desire for what I wish to be on the list.
Nationally, I hope to hear concrete prospects and a roadmap for the US-Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) and the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
AGOA’s renewal has attracted bipartisan interest, with two senators from the two sides recently originating legislation. It might be interesting to hear the executives’ feelings on the same. Security might be an area of convergence of interest.
Depending on how well you address corruption-related concerns, you may make a pitch for increased foreign direct investments.
Please do not forget about diaspora management. The US remains Kenya’s leading source of diaspora remittances. I need not belabour climate change.
As a professed pan-Africanist, you may want to venture outside Kenya’s national interest. If so, try your best to push for the US intervention in Africa’s forgotten conflicts.
If the US were to dedicate only half of its focus to DRC and Sudan, as it has in the Middle East and Ukraine, the impact would be immediate.
Remember to push for institutional reforms to reflect the emerging global order. The United Nations and Bretton Woods should be the immediate targets.
