Kenya Airways PLC has issued a profit warning for the financial year ending 31 December 2025, cautioning that earnings will fall by at least 25% compared to 2024.
The carrier expects its net profit to drop by at least 25%, or roughly KSh 1.35 billion, compared to the KSh 5.4 billion net profit reported in 2024. The caution reflects sharp reductions in passenger traffic, grounded aircraft, and global supply‑chain pressures that have hit many airlines worldwide but are proving especially damaging for KQ.
What Went Wrong: Grounded Planes and Falling Demand
In the first half of 2025, KQ posted a net loss of KSh 12.15 billion, a dramatic reversal from the KSh 513 million profit in the same period of 2024.
- Passenger numbers fell 14% to about 2.2 million (Jan–June 2025), down from 2.54 million a year earlier.
- Available seat kilometres (ASKs), a measure of capacity, dropped 16%.
- Revenue plunged 19%, falling to approximately KSh 74.5 billion from KSh 91.5 billion.
The root cause: KQ grounded three of its nine Boeing 787‑8 Dreamliners, roughly a third of its wide‑body fleet, citing global shortages of aircraft parts and delayed engine maintenance.
Kenya Airways CEO Allan Kilavuka acknowledged the difficulties:
“The first half of 2025 was defined by industry‑wide challenges that directly impacted our performance, particularly the grounding of three of our aircrafts,” he said.
“We remain committed to restoring aircraft availability, containing costs and pursuing strategic investment to strengthen our financial footing.”
From Profit to Warning: 2024 Gains to 2025 Headwinds
Only months ago, KQ had recorded its first full‑year profit since 2013, a turnaround many analysts considered a revival.
- 2024 Net Profit: KSh 5.4 billion
- 2023 Net Loss: KSh 22.6 billion
- 2024 Revenue: ~KSh 188 billion
- Passengers (2024): 5.2 million
- Cargo (2024): 70,776 tonnes
Executives credited the gains to improved traffic, cargo demand, and cost‑cutting under “Project Kifaru.” But optimism has quickly unravelled. The grounding of aircraft, a problem shared across global airlines amid supply‑chain stress, has triggered capacity constraints and collapsing demand for long‑haul travel.
Without a swift solution, passengers are opting for alternatives or postponing their travel, which is hitting KQ hard.
Recovery Efforts and Risks Ahead
Management says the airline is pursuing a multi‑pronged recovery plan:
- Restoring grounded aircraft
- Cost reduction initiatives
- Raising fresh capital to shore up operations
KQ has announced plans to raise US$500 million in fresh capital by early 2026 to support fleet expansion and stabilise finances. One of the grounded Dreamliners has already returned to service, with the remaining two expected later in the year, raising hopes that capacity and passenger confidence will gradually recover.
Financial Snapshot
| Year | Revenue (KShs bn) | Net Profit/Loss (KShs bn) | Passengers (m) | Cargo (tonnes) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | ~165 | -22.6 | ~4.8 | ~65,000 | |
| 2024 | ~188 | +5.4 | 5.2 | 70,776 | |
| H1 2025 | ~74.5 | -12.15 | 2.2 | n/a |
