Climate scientists have issued a stark warning for East Africa’s agricultural sector, forecasting below-average rainfall and elevated temperatures during the October–December 2025 season. This period accounts for up to 70% of the annual precipitation in key farming zones across Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
The 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF71), convened in Nairobi by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), projects a high probability of suppressed rains in southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, much of Somalia, and central to southern Tanzania.
“The likelihood of below-normal rainfall in eastern and southern parts of the region is as high as 55%,” ICPAC stated, warning that erratic precipitation could severely impact crop yields, livestock health, and food security in drought-prone areas.
What It Means for Agriculture
Rains will likely arrive late in southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern to eastern Tanzania—regions that depend heavily on timely planting cycles.
Localised areas such as southeastern South Sudan, northeastern and southwestern Uganda, northern Somalia, and parts of Rwanda and Burundi may receive above-normal rainfall, offering potential relief to farmers.
Meanwhile, scientists expect warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the eastern Horn, with the most pronounced heat anomalies in Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and eastern Kenya, conditions that could intensify stress on crops and strain water resources.
Edward Muriuki, Acting Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, emphasised the seasonal importance:
“The October–December rains contribute up to 70% of the annual total in parts of Kenya and Somalia. This forecast points to a higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall across most of the region, except for pockets in Uganda and South Sudan.”
Regional Leaders Call for Early Action
Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Environment, Climate Change, and Forestry, Dr. Deborah M. Barasa, called for a united front:
“Bridging the early warning gap requires shared knowledge, timely information, and a united regional approach. Kenya remains committed to supporting frameworks that strengthen climate resilience across our communities.”
IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary Mohamed Ware echoed the urgency:
“The Greater Horn of Africa is at the frontline of the climate crisis. Climate information must reach the last mile, and only through collaboration and early action can we turn forecasts into meaningful messages that drive timely action.”
Climate Drivers and Volatility
The forecast was influenced by evolving La Niña conditions, historically linked to drought in eastern Africa, and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole, which could shift and amplify rainfall variability. Scientists warn that climate extremes are intensifying under global warming, making seasonal preparedness more critical than ever.
