Many people worldwide want to have a certain number of children, often enough to create the kind of family they dreamed about growing up.
However, according to the 2025 State of World Population Report by UNFPA, almost one in five people of reproductive age believe they won’t achieve that goal.
The report, titled “The Real Fertility Crisis,” challenges the widespread belief that declining birth rates are a sign that people no longer want children. Instead, it paints a different picture. It shows that many people still want to become parents, but they are held back by things they cannot control, like high living costs, gender inequality, limited access to reproductive healthcare, and fear about the future.
UNFPA’s findings state that 39% of people cite financial pressure as a reason they may not have their ideal number of children. Another 25% point to issues like climate change, war, and social instability. So, the real crisis isn’t that people don’t want children—it’s that too many people can’t make that choice freely.
Kenya’s Fertility Shift: Policy and Progress
In Kenya, we are already seeing how the power to choose can shape population trends. According to the 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime—also known as the total fertility rate (TFR)—dropped from 6.7 in 1989 to 3.4 in 2022. This number was projected to drop even further to 3.2 by 2025.
This change is a direct result of policy decisions that expanded access to reproductive health services, modern contraception, and education for women and girls. For instance, modern contraceptive use among married women rose from just 18% in 1989 to 57% in 2022, while the unmet need for contraception has dropped from 27% to 14%.
Another major driver of this change is education. The government has made progress in keeping girls in school, ending early marriages, and promoting gender equality. Women with secondary education now have an average of 2.8 children, compared to 5.3 for women with no formal education. These statistics show that giving girls the opportunity to learn and dream bigger leads them to delay childbirth and plan their families more deliberately.
One clear sign that the policy changes are already taking course in Kenya is the drop in the total number of births, from 1.19 million in 2023 to 1.11 million in 2024.
Looking Ahead: Kenya’s Future Fertility Path
While Kenya’s fertility rate has fallen, it is projected to drop even further. According to a study published in The Lancet, the TFR may fall to 1.8 by 2050 and down to 1.4 by 2100. This means that, without immigration, the country’s population could begin to shrink in the second half of the century.
This shift mirrors global patterns. To keep a stable population, a country usually needs a TFR of 2.1 children per woman, known as the replacement level. Falling below that level means fewer people are being born to replace those who age out of the population, and that’s a trend that could soon take hold in Kenya, too.
By the end of the century, only six countries—Somalia, Niger, Chad, Samoa, Tonga, and Tajikistan—are expected to have fertility rates above replacement level. This shows just how widespread the decline in fertility will be if current trends continue.
What the Global Picture Reveals
Kenya’s experience fits into a bigger global conversation. The UNFPA report highlights that countries like Argentina and Uruguay have achieved major progress by focusing on young people’s access to sexual and reproductive health services. Argentina, for example, saw a 60% drop in teenage births, while Uruguay saw a 53% drop, all within a decade.
In contrast, China’s strict one-child policy, once seen as a success, led to a very low fertility rate of 1.0 by 2024. Even after the policy was relaxed, fertility didn’t bounce back.
Policy Should Empower, Not Pressure
If governments want to shape fertility outcomes sustainably and fairly, they must focus on empowering people to make their own choices, not pressuring them into having more or fewer children.
This means investing in education, healthcare, jobs, childcare, and gender equality. It means giving young people access to information and services so they can plan their futures. And it means respecting the right to bodily autonomy.
As the UNFPA report states, the real fertility crisis is not about the number of births. It’s about the gap between what people hope for and what they can achieve. If that gap is closed through supportive policies, then the world can move toward a future where every person has the freedom to decide if, when, and how many children to have.